Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
